Bettor Ed Season Wins Simulator

• What is the Season Wins Simulator?

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The season wins simulator uses team power ratings, home-court advantage, and the current league schedule to run thousands of simulated seasons. The output is each team’s expected win total and the probability of finishing above or below different alternative win lines.

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• How do you calculate season wins?

 

For every game on the schedule, we calculate a win probability using the difference in power ratings plus home-court advantage, modeled with a Normal distribution of scoring margins (σ ≈ 12.05 for WNBA). Completed games are locked in with their actual results. We then run a Monte Carlo simulation of the remaining season thousands of times, tallying each team’s wins across all sims. The average gives the expected win total, and the distribution gives probabilities for alternative win lines.​​​​

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• How does the league affect season win futures?

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Each league has unique scoring environments and variance. For example, a WNBA game has a different margin distribution compared to an NBA or NFL game.

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• Are these season win projections correct?

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They’re correct within the model’s assumptions: for WNBA estimates, for example, that power ratings and a Normal distribution with the chosen standard deviation capture game outcomes. Models could refine further (adjusting for injuries, rest, totals, pace, etc.). Think of this as a transparent, math-driven baseline—not a guarantee of what will happen, but a realistic distribution of possibilities.