Bettor Ed Blog

Bettor Ed’s NFL Teaser Calculator takes the guesswork out of teasers by using historical game data and consensus lines to estimate true cover probabilities and fair odds. Learn how to plug in your legs, compare prices, and only fire when the math shows real expected value.

Most bettors still guess on futures and long-term bets. Predictive betting simulations flip that on its head by using Monte Carlo models to replay seasons and playoffs thousands of times, then turning those probabilities into fair odds. In this post, we'll walk through how simulations like Bettor Ed's CFB Playoff Simulator help you find +EV bets - and how SlipSync tracks every ticket so you can prove your edge over time.

Want sharper College Football Playoff odds than the sportsbook? In this post you’ll see how to use a CFB playoff simulator to project true CFP futures probabilities, spot mispriced teams, and log every ticket with SlipSync so you can prove your edge over time.

Most halftime bets lose for the same reasons: bad prices, small edges, and rushed decisions. Learn a simple plan for NBA 2nd half lines you can use tonight.

Learn how to build a simple NFL 2nd half lines model to spot value and reduce losses. Follow actionable steps and get our free Betting Model Template.

Bet trackers like Pikkit and Betstamp have exploded in popularity. They promise easy logging, clean dashboards, and automated stats. But if you’ve actually used them, you already know the catch: they don’t work with every sportsbook—and they never will.

If you're taking the step from recreational bettor to sharp, breakeven percentage is the first number you should know for any bet. This guide will provide clear definitions, correct formulas, worked examples, common traps, and quick mental math so you can use it today.

Sports betting has changed more in the past 25 years than in the 100 before it. While the markets evolved, so did the education. Here’s the progression of the best sports betting books- from the early fundamentals to the modern era.

When the Powerball jackpot climbs into the billions, the first question isn’t just “Should I buy a ticket?”—it’s “Is it actually worth anything?”

Summary:  If you ignore base rates, you’ll misread injury news, hot streaks, and market moves. Bayesian reasoning  fixes that by combining the big picture (priors) with new info (evidence) to get a smarter, updated probability . What is the Base Rate Fallacy? The base rate fallacy  is the mistake of ignoring how common something is (its base rate) and focusing only on vivid details. Classic example:  You meet a shy, thin, detail-oriented man with glasses. Is he more likely a

Learn how Gadoon “Spanky” Kyrollos uses top-down betting to spot market inefficiencies and how you can apply the same strategy to gain an edge.

The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing formula that uses your edge and the odds to recommend how much of your bankroll to wager for maximum long-term growth. It is powerful, but it assumes your edge estimate is realistic and your risk tolerance is high.

Most new bettors stumble on the same problems. Fix these five and you will improve fast.

Futures are difficult for sportsbooks to price and maintain—especially across huge fields like NCAA Division I basketball. That complexity creates mispricings you can exploit with a simple process.

Pros talk about expected value (EV) because it’s the cleanest way to judge whether a bet is profitable. Prospect theory (loss aversion) and utility theory (personal satisfaction) explain why many bettors choose differently—often to their detriment. If your goal is profit, EV should lead.