How to Use Bettor Ed’s NFL Teaser Calculator to Find +EV Teasers

Ronald Lockington
3 days ago
8 min read

TLDR

Old-school Wong teasers (2-team, 6-points through 3 and 7, -110) used to be a clean 5% edge. Those days are mostly gone.
Most books now price 6-point NFL teasers worse than -120.
Bettor Ed’s NFL Teaser Calculator uses historical NFL data and consensus lines to estimate true leg cover rates, fair teaser odds, and expected value.
The edge now comes from exceptions: your handicapping, market disagreements, and low variance spots where each point is worth more.
Use the calculator to avoid bad teasers (through 0, totals, CFB) and focus on the small slice of +EV NFL teasers that still exist.

NFL teasers used to be the sharpest public secret in football betting.

In the 2000s, Stanford Wong showed that if you teased NFL sides through key numbers like 3 and 7, and you could get 2-team, 6-point teasers at -110, you had about a 5% edge or more. That's huge in a liquid market like the NFL.

Books eventually caught up: 2-team 6-point teaser prices drifted from -110 toward -120, -130, -140.

After the extra point moved back, scoring patterns shifted, and push rates on 3 and 7 changed too.

So are Wong teasers dead? Not exactly. But the free money is gone. Any edge you still have comes from doing extra work.

Bettor Ed’s NFL Teaser Calculator is built for that reality. It doesn’t assume teasers are automatically good. It prices them with data and tells you, in today’s market, whether your teaser is +EV or not.

Quick refresher: What is an NFL teaser?

A teaser is just a parlay of alternative lines:

You move each spread or total in your favor by a fixed number of points (e.g., 6, 6.5, 7).
In exchange, your payout is reduced compared to a normal parlay.
All legs must still win for the teaser to cash.

Example (football):

Leg 1: Vikings +1.5 → +7.5
Leg 2: Patriots -8 → -2

You get a better number on both teams. But both legs must cover, and you’re taking whatever fixed teaser price the book posts (e.g., -120 for a 2-team 6-point).

The key question is “Do these teased numbers cover often enough to justify the teaser price?”

That’s exactly what the NFL Teaser Calculator answers.

Why Wong teasers used to be special

Back when 2-team 6-point teaser prices were +100 or -110, the math was friendly.

At +100:

Implied probability to win the teaser = 50%
Break-even per leg = √0.50 ≈ 70.7%

Wong’s research showed that NFL sides teased through 3, 6, and 7 were covering around 76% historically.

76% actual > 70.7% required = clear edge.

At -110:

Implied probability to win teaser ≈ 52.38%
Leg break-even = √0.5238 ≈ 72.4%

Still below 76%, still a strong edge.

Fast forward:

Books move to -120 for 2-team 6-point teasers.
Implied probability ≈ 54.55%
Leg break-even = √0.5455 ≈ 73.9%

Now the margin between “what history gives you” and “what price requires” is much thinner. Many books pushed even worse.

Bottom line: classic Wong teaser rules are still a good starting filter, not an automatic green light.

How Bettor Ed’s NFL Teaser Calculator prices modern teasers

The calculator is built for the current market, not 2005.

Under the hood, it blends:

Consensus NFL lines
Historical NFL results
Your teaser legs and teaser price

Step 1: Start from consensus, not one rogue book

The calculator:

Pulls current spreads and totals from multiple sportsbooks.
Identifies the sharpest books and averages their lines.

This matters because you want to measure your teaser against the true market opinion, not against a generic 6-point teaser. For example, teasing from -7.5 to -1.5 is more valuable if -7.5 is priced at -120 than if it's -110 on either side.

Step 2: Use historical data

For each potential teased leg, the engine looks at games that looked similar:

Same general spread range (e.g., home favorite around -7).
Similar total (since total affects scoring spread).

Example:

You’re teasing a home favorite from -7 to -1.
The calculator finds a large sample of past games where the home team closed around a 7-point favorite with a similar total.
It counts how often the final margin was >1 (so the teased number -1 would have covered).

If that happened in 70% of comparable games, the leg’s cover probability is about 70%.

Elihu Feustel described this method, which he calls Answer Key, in his book Beyond the Odds. It's an advanced but excellent way to price derivatives when you have a large enough sample. Because there is not a large sample of games with spreads >10, calculating teasers for games with those point spreads may not be as accurate.

Step 3: Combine leg probabilities into teaser probability

If you have two legs:

Leg 1 covers: p₁
Leg 2 covers: p₂

Teaser win probability = p₁ × p₂.

Concrete example:

Leg 1: 74%
Leg 2: 72%

Teaser win probability = 0.74 × 0.72 ≈ 53.3%

Step 4: Calculate Expected Value

The calculator then:

Compares fair odds to your book’s teaser price.
Returns expected value

If your teaser wins 53.3% of the time and you’re being charged a price that requires 55% to break even, it’s -EV. If another book offers a better price (or your legs are stronger), you might flip to +EV.

Where the real edge is now: exceptions

If traditional Wong rules and static menus are mostly priced out, where does your edge come from? Three places, which I talk about in detail in my book, Secrets of Sports Betting:

Handicapping (your numbers vs market)
Consensus disagreement (sharp pricing makes it more favorable)
Variance (low volatility spots where each point matters more)

1) Handicapping: your numbers vs the spread

If your own model or handicap makes a team stronger than the market, you might be teasing from a fairer line than the posted one.

Example:

Market line: Vikings +1.5.
Your numbers: Vikings should be -2.
Teaser: +1.5 → +7.5 looks like you are really going from -2 to +7.5 in terms of fair strength.

That extra hidden cushion boosts the true cover probability beyond what the raw historical data suggests. The calculator shows you the baseline; your handicap is the “bonus.” That being said, the line can also move AGAINST you, making your teaser -EV. If you're not sure where the market's headed, just wait until game day when the numbers have settled.

2) Consensus: one book off the rest

If one book has:

Broncos +1.5 while sharp books sit at pick’em, then teasing Broncos +1.5 to +7.5 is more like teasing from 0 to +7.5 in real terms.

You can:

Use the calculator’s consensus lines to see the true market spread.
Spot when your book is lagging or shaded.
Use that stale or off-market number as a teaser leg, boosting your edge.

3) Variance: when 6 points matter more

Teasers are worth more in lower-variance games:

Lower totals.
Clear motivation (playoff chase, no tanking).
Starters confirmed on both sides.

A 6-point move in a 17–13 type game is much more valuable than in a 42–35 shootout where scores jump all over the place.

The calculator’s historical base already bakes in variance through totals. You can tighten further by favoring low variance games as teaser candidates.

Bad teaser habits

Most teaser leaks are boring and predictable. Here are some habits to avoid:

Teasing through 0

Moving from -2 to +4 might look nice. In reality, 0 is a dead number in the NFL. Ties are rare, and spending points to cross through zero usually offers very little value. The calculator will give you leg probabilities that don’t come close to leg break-even.

Teasing totals

Totals don’t behave like spreads. Each point is worth much less. Moving an under from 56 to 62 sounds like a big cushion; in practice, the historical jump in under-hit rate is small.

Teasing college football

College football spreads can be -30, -40, -50. Outcomes are blown out enough that a 6-point move hardly matters. If you run CFB-style teasers through a spread- and total-based engine, you’ll see the value just isn’t there.

Teasing other sports at random

NFL push rates around 3 and 7, plus scoring structure, make teasers somewhat analyzable. Basketball and other sports don’t give you the same structure, and books know it. Unless you have a sport-specific model, stay focused on NFL.

Turning the NFL Teaser Calculator into a process

Here’s a simple workflow for every NFL teaser you consider.

Price the teaser

Open the NFL Teaser Calculator.
Choose your teaser type (points, price).
Select candidate legs.
Look at:
- Individual leg cover probabilities.
- Combined teaser win probability.
- Fair odds and EV.

Look for exceptions

When the math is close to break-even:

Check your own handicapping. Do your numbers push leg probabilities higher?
Compare the consensus line to your book’s line. Are you teasing off a stale number?
Consider variance: stable-conditions game or a volatile spot?

If those exceptions push the effective leg probabilities above the leg break-even threshold, the teaser might be worth playing.

Capitalize: Size and track

Once you have a teaser with a clear edge:

Size your bet with fractional Kelly or a simple fixed percentage (e.g., 0.5–2% of bankroll).
Log every teaser in SlipSync:
- After building your teaser, click the button in the calculator and it'll automatically fill in bet data (date, sport, what you bet, stake, etc.)
- SlipSync will also track performance stats like your teaser ROI, profit, and volume

FAQ

Q: Are NFL teasers still beatable today?

A: Yes, but not the way they were 20 years ago. Classic Wong teaser rules at -110 were a clear 5% edge. At modern prices like -120 or alt-line parlays, most “standard” teasers are close to break-even or worse. You need data, good prices, and a few extra angles (handicapping, market disagreement, variance) to find real +EV spots.

Q: What does Bettor Ed’s NFL Teaser Calculator actually do?

A: It starts from consensus NFL lines, uses historical data from similar games to estimate how often each teased leg covers, multiplies those into a teaser win probability, and converts that into fair odds and expected value. You see, in plain English, whether your teaser is underpriced, fairly priced, or overpriced at your sportsbook.

Q: Which games are best for NFL teasers?

A: NFL sides that:

Cross key numbers like 3 and 7.
Come from low-total, lower-variance games.
Involve stable lineups and clear motivation.

Even then, the calculator has to confirm that leg cover probabilities beat the teaser’s break-even thresholds at your actual price.

Q: Should I tease totals or college football?

A: Generally no, unless you have a very specific, data-backed edge. Totals and CFB spreads don’t reward point-buying the way NFL spreads do, and most teaser menus are priced to punish those bets. The calculator will show weak leg probabilities relative to what you’re paying.

Q: How do I know how much to bet on a teaser?

A: Use a fixed small percentage of bankroll (0.5–2%) or a fractional Kelly approach based on the calculator’s edge output. Don’t over-bet. The calculator gives you edge; your bankroll rules keep you from blowing up.

Q: How do I track whether my teaser strategy really wins?

A: Use SlipSync. Click the button in the calculator or upload your bet slips, and review teaser-only ROI and variance over meaningful samples. Use the NFL Teaser Calculator to kill guesswork, not to justify every teaser you want to fire. In a market where the easy edges have been priced out, the bettors who win are the ones who do the extra math.