Top 5 Reasons Beginners Lose (and How to Turn It Around)

Ronald Lockington
Sep 25, 2024
2 min read

Updated: 1 day ago

Most new bettors stumble on the same problems. Fix these five and you will improve fast.

1) Misunderstanding odds and implied probability

Odds are just prices for chances. Convert every price to a percentage before you bet.

-110 implies 52.38%

+150 implies 40.00%

-200 implies 66.67%

-250 implies 71.43%

A small change in price can flip your ROI. If your true win rate is about 70%, taking -250 instead of -200 pushes expected ROI from roughly +5% to about −2%.

Always compare your win probability to the implied probability.

Do this: use the Odds Converter and the No-Vig Calculator to remove the house margin before you judge value.

2) Avoiding the math that actually matters

You do not need advanced math. You do need the basics.

Expected value (EV): EV= Win Probability * Decimal odds − 1
If EV is positive you have an edge. If negative you pass.

Do this: price the bet with the EV Calculator and size it with the Kelly Calculator. Keep a log and compare to closing lines to validate your numbers.

3) Failing to line shop

Books make money through margin. Your job is to pay as little of it as possible.

Example: one book posts −165 and +130 which is about 5.4% vig. If you shop around and combine the best prices from two books such as −150 and +145, you just dropped most of the vig. The House edge is almost gone.

Do this: check multiple U.S. books like FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and more, and record the best price. Our Odds Screen is free and makes this automatic.

4) Trusting the wrong sources instead of verified results

Hot takes are not edges. Public records without audit trails are not proof. Look for tracked ROI, sample size, and beat rates against closing numbers.

Do this: learn the foundations with Psychology of Sports Betting and Sports Betting for Beginners so you can evaluate advice on your own.

5) Betting only in the most efficient markets

NFL and NBA main lines are tough to beat. Softer spots exist in smaller or derivative markets where pricing lags.

Targets to explore: player props, niche leagues, alternative lines, smaller markets such as tennis, golf, CFL, esports, KBO, and select European or minor leagues.

Do this: start with markets where your model or research is specific and where limits are modest. Validate by tracking closing line value and long-term EV.