Bettor Ed Blog

Summary:  If you ignore base rates, you’ll misread injury news, hot streaks, and market moves. Bayesian reasoning  fixes that by combining the big picture (priors) with new info (evidence) to get a smarter, updated probability . What is the Base Rate Fallacy? The base rate fallacy  is the mistake of ignoring how common something is (its base rate) and focusing only on vivid details. Classic example:  You meet a shy, thin, detail-oriented man with glasses. Is he more likely a

Pros talk about expected value (EV) because it’s the cleanest way to judge whether a bet is profitable. Prospect theory (loss aversion) and utility theory (personal satisfaction) explain why many bettors choose differently—often to their detriment. If your goal is profit, EV should lead.