Bettor Ed Blog

Summary:  If you ignore base rates, you’ll misread injury news, hot streaks, and market moves. Bayesian reasoning  fixes that by combining the big picture (priors) with new info (evidence) to get a smarter, updated probability . What is the Base Rate Fallacy? The base rate fallacy  is the mistake of ignoring how common something is (its base rate) and focusing only on vivid details. Classic example:  You meet a shy, thin, detail-oriented man with glasses. Is he more likely a

Expected value, or EV, is the clearest way to judge whether a sports bet is profitable. This guide explains the expected value formula, shows how to calculate EV, and breaks down how value betting works in real betting markets.