Bettor Ed Blog

Most bettors still guess on futures and long-term bets. Predictive betting simulations flip that on its head by using Monte Carlo models to replay seasons and playoffs thousands of times, then turning those probabilities into fair odds. In this post, we'll walk through how simulations like Bettor Ed's CFB Playoff Simulator help you find +EV bets - and how SlipSync tracks every ticket so you can prove your edge over time.

Want sharper College Football Playoff odds than the sportsbook? In this post you’ll see how to use a CFB playoff simulator to project true CFP futures probabilities, spot mispriced teams, and log every ticket with SlipSync so you can prove your edge over time.

Most halftime bets lose for the same reasons: bad prices, small edges, and rushed decisions. Learn a simple plan for NBA 2nd half lines you can use tonight.

Learn how to build a simple NFL 2nd half lines model to spot value and reduce losses. Follow actionable steps and get our free Betting Model Template.

If you're taking the step from recreational bettor to sharp, breakeven percentage is the first number you should know for any bet. This guide will provide clear definitions, correct formulas, worked examples, common traps, and quick mental math so you can use it today.

Summary:  If you ignore base rates, you’ll misread injury news, hot streaks, and market moves. Bayesian reasoning  fixes that by combining the big picture (priors) with new info (evidence) to get a smarter, updated probability . What is the Base Rate Fallacy? The base rate fallacy  is the mistake of ignoring how common something is (its base rate) and focusing only on vivid details. Classic example:  You meet a shy, thin, detail-oriented man with glasses. Is he more likely a

The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing formula that uses your edge and the odds to recommend how much of your bankroll to wager for maximum long-term growth. It is powerful, but it assumes your edge estimate is realistic and your risk tolerance is high.

Futures are difficult for sportsbooks to price and maintain—especially across huge fields like NCAA Division I basketball. That complexity creates mispricings you can exploit with a simple process.