Case Study: Spanky & Top-Down Betting

Gadoon "Spanky" Kyrollos is a well-known top-down bettor based in New Jersey who has built a reputation for using market data and a custom odds screen to identify betting opportunities. His team’s data-driven approach, while met with challenges in the U.S. legal sports betting environment, can exploit inefficiencies in both legal and offshore markets.

Top-Down Betting Approach

Top-down betting is a market-focused strategy where bettors analyze the overall betting landscape to spot mispriced odds, rather than focusing on building models or handicapping individual games. This approach involves studying line movements, tracking sharp action, and finding discrepancies across sportsbooks to identify value bets. The goal is to take a broad look at the market ("top") and then drill down to individual betting opportunities ("down").

Spanky highlights college basketball as a prime example of a sport ripe for top-down betting. With over 100 games on a typical Saturday, each offering multiple betting options (side, total, moneyline), bookmakers are spread thin, making it difficult for them to maintain sharp lines on every game. This creates inefficiencies, which top-down bettors exploit, selectively targeting games where they see value. As Spanky puts it, “the bookmaker can’t keep up," allowing his team to choose where to bet with precision.

Tools and Techniques in Top-Down Betting

Key to Spanky's success are the tools he uses to monitor the market. Odds screens like Don Best, Spank Odds (Spanky’s public version of his own odds screen), and Unabated allow top-down bettors to see real-time line movements across multiple sportsbooks. These tools help identify which sportsbooks move lines first and provide critical information like betting limits, which indicate the significance of a line shift. For example, a line move immediately after a limit increase typically provides good information.

This ability to quickly assess line movements gives top-down bettors an edge. They can place their bets at slower-moving sportsbooks before the lines adjust, giving them a theoretical advantage over the market. Typically, this advantage is good for about 1-3% ROI. It’s a low profit, high-volume game.

Challenges with Top-Down Betting

Despite the effectiveness of this approach, top-down bettors have faced significant challenges since the legalization of sports betting in the U.S. Spanky refers to the current environment as a "cat-and-mouse game," where he must use "beards" (bettors who place wagers on his behalf) to avoid detection. Legal sportsbooks often respond to sharp bettors by severely limiting bet sizes, sometimes to less than $1.00, effectively barring them from meaningful participation.

This contrasts sharply with some offshore sportsbooks, which are more willing to accept sharp action. Offshore bookmakers value the information they gain from Spanky’s bets, adjusting their lines accordingly to balance their action and improve profitability. This creates a symbiotic relationship between Spanky and the offshore books—he profits from beating the lines, while they benefit from sharper odds.

Circa Sports in Las Vegas is a current exception in the U.S. market. Circa publicly posts its limits and offers consistent treatment to all customers, regardless of their betting success. This transparency is rare in the regulated market, where many sportsbooks see sharp bettors as a liability rather than a resource for improving their lines.

Conclusion

Top-down betting strategies like Spanky’s demonstrate how market-driven approaches can exploit inefficiencies, especially in sports with high game volume, like college basketball. While legal sportsbooks in the U.S. tend to limit action from top-down bettors (and really any sharp action), offshore sportsbooks have embraced a more symbiotic relationship, using sharp bettors to refine their lines and improve long-term profitability.