Bettor Ed Blog

Bettor Ed’s NFL Teaser Calculator takes the guesswork out of teasers by using historical game data and consensus lines to estimate true cover probabilities and fair odds. Learn how to plug in your legs, compare prices, and only fire when the math shows real expected value.

Learn how to build a simple NFL 2nd half lines model to spot value and reduce losses. Follow actionable steps and get our free Betting Model Template.

If you're taking the step from recreational bettor to sharp, breakeven percentage is the first number you should know for any bet. This guide will provide clear definitions, correct formulas, worked examples, common traps, and quick mental math so you can use it today.

Sports betting has changed more in the past 25 years than in the 100 before it. While the markets evolved, so did the education. Here’s the progression of the best sports betting books- from the early fundamentals to the modern era.

Summary:  If you ignore base rates, you’ll misread injury news, hot streaks, and market moves. Bayesian reasoning  fixes that by combining the big picture (priors) with new info (evidence) to get a smarter, updated probability . What is the Base Rate Fallacy? The base rate fallacy  is the mistake of ignoring how common something is (its base rate) and focusing only on vivid details. Classic example:  You meet a shy, thin, detail-oriented man with glasses. Is he more likely a

The Kelly Criterion is a bet-sizing formula that uses your edge and the odds to recommend how much of your bankroll to wager for maximum long-term growth. It is powerful, but it assumes your edge estimate is realistic and your risk tolerance is high.

Most new bettors stumble on the same problems. Fix these five and you will improve fast.